Vermont’s COVID-19 outlook uncertain, state leaders say
Updated: 6:16 PM EDT Oct 12, 2021
Good morning everybody, the governor is on a White house call, so he will be joining us Momentarily. I might be jack, I’ll kick off with this week’s modeling and data presentation. Uh well then hear from secretary Dan French with K through 12 update. Secretary smith with the vaccine update and then dr Levin. And of course when the governor arrives, we’ll hear from the governor as well. So starting this week with Vermont’s data last week, we saw some encouraging trends in terms of uh case numbers, in terms of hospitalizations, uh both in Vermont and in New England and nationally. Unfortunately as it relates to Vermont, those trends have not continued. You can see here on the case slide that the trends have actually reversed and gone up Up about 26% over the last seven days and up 8% over the last 14 days, we’ll get to it in a minute. But the trends in New England and in the country have largely held steady, which certainly is a good sign for Vermont. What happens around us obviously has an impact on us here in Vermont, But at the moment, as you can see the case slide trends have reversed and are going up, you can look at the modeling slide from last week in that 50% confidence interval of the cases have fallen on the upper end of that. So it was something the modeling was showing was a possibility, but again, all of the other trends were pointing in a favorable direction. Um and we’re not anticipating that reversal when you consider uh that cases have been coming down for two weeks in Vermont uh Like I said that cases have started to drop in New England as well. So again something will have to keep a close eye on at the moment. Uh in terms of the modeling, both because of the state holidays that we’re experiencing and also because of the trends in Vermont a little uncertain as to the direction that we’re heading. Unfortunately when you look across the country, you see the Vermont had the 19th fewest cases reported in the last seven days on a per capita basis. So continue to be in that sort of top performing half of states. But um you can see there that we are at 19. Uh When you look at the vaccinated versus unvaccinated rate, a similar story holds true here, you can see how much different That fully vaccinated rate is. Then the not fully vaccinated rate that fully vaccinated rate has continued to stay pretty steady. It’s increasing about 7% over the last seven days. While that uh not fully vaccinated rate is up about 7% as well. But again that differences held pretty steady there about 39 times greater among those who are not fully vaccinated, you can see on the next slide that tests have held steady over the last number of weeks. So this fluctuation that we’re seeing in cases not really tied to a fluctuation in the amount of testing that we’re doing. Uh last week we had cases go down. When are testing numbers actually went up a bit compared to the week before. Uh This week testing is up again a little bit cases up as well. But generally testing has held pretty steady. It just looks like the prevalence of cases a little higher in Vermont this week compared to last week. When you look at where the cases are similar trends hold here as well. The Northeast Kingdom continues to be at the upper end of the regions of Vermont with case counts, you can see them clearly standing out over the last few weeks but including this week standing out as one of the highest case prevalence regions Central or southern Vermont rather holding pretty steady while the chicken and counting area. And central Vermont coming up just a little bit as well. So cases in Southern Vermont holding steady still very high in the Northeast Kingdom relative to the rest of Vermont looking at the hospitalization rates. This was something again, they gave us encouragement. Last week we saw the admissions going down Particularly among those 70 and older. Those admissions have continued to trend down, so the number of people being admitted has been trending down recently. Uh we’ll just put a pin in that for a second about something we want to talk about, but when you look at the hospitalization rates overall. Uh still a majority of them among the not fully vaccinated. So 69% of recent hospitalizations among those who are not fully vaccinated, 82% of icu stays among those who are not fully vaccinated. You can see again when you look at the rest of the country, Vermont performing at the top in terms of the number of new admissions, sixth in the country this week, relative to all the other states in the country. Again, when you look at the fully vaccinated verse, not fully vaccinated on the admission side, you see that the emissions have come down more clearly for those who are fully vaccinated versus those who are not. Uh the fully vaccinated mission rate has gone down, but that’s down about 6% compared to those who are fully vaccinated down 36% over the last seven days. So we mentioned that the 70 year old age group was coming down, which certainly is a good thing. But something that we want to just keep an eye on and have a note of caution is when we look at the different age groups in the cases that we’re seeing, you can see that the 70 year olds in the 80 year olds and over did see their cases go up this week as well. So again, for those who are visiting maybe elderly friends or family, be cautious, take a test before you see them. Uh those that are eligible for boosters. Uh certainly important to do that and get boosted or even get your initial vaccine as well. We’re seeing a big disparity among the rates of cases, hospitalizations and deaths among those who are fully vaccinated and those who are not fully vaccinated in those elderly vermonter populations. So really critical to get vaccinated by critical to get your booster shot as well. Turning to the Vermont death slides, you can see that we are at 14 deaths for the month of october. Uh We are at 45 deaths for the month of september, a few deaths reported recently. Uh, we’re actually occurred in the month of september. Looking at the next slide, you’ll see that that fortunately puts us at the better end of the spectrum in terms of the other states across the country, but with the case rates as they are a little uncertain. Any forecast in terms of the trajectory that we’re heading uh in terms of our fatalities is also uncertain at the moment unfortunately. But we’ll keep obviously a close eye on those as the week and weeks unfold. Looking at higher education, uh continue to be good news on college campuses. You can see that we have 27 cases this week up a little bit from last week, but pretty steady throughout the entire semester. Uh, the vaccination rate has broken over 95% in terms of all institutions together. So the news continues to be favorable on our college campuses. Looking at the long term care facility outbreaks. You’ll see that we added one additional outbreak in terms of the total number, there are actually four outbreaks that were retired from the slide. Five new outbreaks that were added. Um, and you can see that the total number of cases down a bit from last week, down 17 compared to last week. Uh, so again, maybe some favorable signs there in terms of long term care facility outbreaks in terms of where we’re still seeing optimistic trends. Certainly across the country, you see here that cases hospitalizations and deaths for this week have continued to trend down. When we look at the next slide, which breaks that out by the most vaccinated states in the least vaccinated states, you continue to see that big difference. The states that are more vaccinated like Vermont continue to be spared the worst of this delta wave. Our cases are not nearly as high as those that are less vaccinated even though they’re starting to see improvement and have been improving for a number of weeks. And then when you see Vermont in there specifically, you can see, we’re a little higher in the case counts but continue to remain right on point in terms of the number of fatalities and hospitalizations remained low relative to our peers and that highly vaccinated right similarly when you look at the new England trends and this goes through last friday because there were a lot of reporting delays over the weekend. So we didn’t include the weekend in these numbers. But when you go through last friday, you can see that most of the new England States have a clear trajectory downward at this point, even maine had had a lot of trouble in the last, you know, a number of weeks, including pretty much most of the delta wave has started to see their cases come down. Uh Same with Connecticut, massachusetts and Rhode island. New Hampshire is pretty flat and you see Vermont in there as being the outlier with cases increasing this week turning the vaccinations, we see that they have picked up a bit. Uh similarly to some of the state’s not reporting the C. D. C. Did not report yesterday or on sunday. Uh So this is a truncated week. But even that being the case, we’re still up about 2400 new individuals starting vaccination this week, which is certainly a Good sign up to 88.7% of eligible vermonters Who have started vaccination and you can see that the seven day average has jumped up a bit as a result up about 35.8% over the last seven days. So good to see people continuing to get vaccinated, important to get your booster shot if you’re eligible but important also to get vaccinated if you’re still on the fence uh important to do so as quickly as you can and that leads us to where we stand in terms of vaccination rates overall, you can see that there hasn’t been any change from last week. Most importantly, we are the number one state in terms of the population fully vaccinated now, over 70% of our entire population is fully vaccinated Vermont the first state to get to 70% but also near the top or at the top of many of these other rankings as well. So with that I’ll turn it now over to Secretary French. Thank you. Commissioner Paycheck, Good afternoon. A major focus of our work last week has been to support the rollout of our new test estate program, be working with school districts to develop a better understanding of how the system will work uh and to start to address many of the logistical considerations that are coming up. Test to stay will be a promising solution to try to minimize the spread of schools at the same time, uh doing a better job of keeping our students in school. Uh That being said, there’s still a lot of moving parts for implementing test to stay met with the leadership of the school nurses association last week and it was one of the points they wanted me to emphasize that will take some time to implement test to stay. Not all districts will be able to move forward as quickly as others, um parents and students should be patient as we work through the logistical issues to implement the programme. I will be meeting regularly with the leadership of the school nurses association going forward last year. They met regularly with the health department team and their feedback was funneled up through our decision making process from the health department. Um as a result of the meeting we had last week we decided to create a new structure and I will meet with them by monthly along with leaders from the health department. Um and I think that will be more useful structure to get their input factored more directly into our decision making. Um the nurse association did hold a webinar last week on test this day uh featured speakers included Dr Bell from the Vermont chapter of american pediatrics. Ben lee Dr Ben lee Uvm, a school nurse from Lexington public schools in massachusetts and some of our team at the um we also followed up, had an additional webinar on friday uh, that over viewed test to stay in the context of all our other testing initiatives and started to outline the various processes of school districts would need to do to unwrap into test the steak. I thought I’d summarize two of the processes that districts are working on right now. One is the clear waiver process and the other is a specific training on some of the antigen tests that are part of the test, the state program, One manufacturer in particular. Abbott Labs requires testing for all the testing sites that use their been ax Now. Test. Um clear waiver process is basically required because it’s necessary for schools, uh any, any site that’s going to implement medical testing and the waiver process is available under federal regulation when the tests that are being administered are fairly simple. Um and there’s a low probability of erroneous results from the test. Uh so we’re working on school districts to get them through that process. As of this morning, we’ve had four independent schools and 26 school districts are about half our school districts begin to clear waiver process for independent schools have obtained their clear waivers and eight school districts have done. So we’re encouraging all independent schools and school districts to begin to clear waiver process whether or not they feel like they’re ready to implement tests to stay at the moment just to to accomplish that piece of paperwork, get it out of the way. Um in terms of training, Abbott Labs held one training session on by next. Now, last Wednesday we had 35 participants and we’ve scheduled additional trainings going forward on every Monday and Tuesday for the next two weeks and we’ll schedule additional trainings as necessary. Um We’re also working on a simplified parent consent form and process. Uh This form will cover our response testing and the use of the antigen tests that are part of the test, the state program. We do continue to hear from districts and from the school nurses about staffing concerns. I don’t have any easy solutions to that, as I mentioned previously, but we are working to take some things off the plate, so to speak. One area for improvement we’re looking at is contact tracing. Contact tracing is a labor intensive process. But when paired with the antigen testing for close context, it is a powerful tool that has been shown in other states to keep kids safe and keep them. Also in school, we know from data from the U. K in massachusetts that classmate contacts have a low likelihood of becoming cases. From an educational perspective, we need to use the contact tracing process in conjunction with the antigen testing to minimize the number of students that are excluded from school. So our immediate priority for supporting the implementation of tests to stay is to make some revisions to the contact tracing process. We’re reaching out to various stakeholder groups to see how we can make the process more doable while also protecting our students. Making contact tracing more manageable can create more capacity to implement tests to stay. I’m not only concerned about the amount of time involved in contact tracing, but also the amount of conflict that’s creating uh for schools and their families, families experienced significant disruption uh, to the routines when students are placed in quarantine, some students are excuse me, some parents are pushing back or not adhering to the quarantine instructions from schools. It’s something I’ve observed lately when I’ve been in schools that nurses routinely mentioned this conflict. It’s persistent and it’s wearing on school staff as much as it is wearing on parents as well. Um Schools are not designed to work in conflict with their parents uh and their communities. Uh The educational process is a partnership. So I’m hopeful test to stay will not only be efficient and effective but also lead to less conflict in our communities. Uh Since it enables more students to stay in school uh full time again this will take some time to implement but I encourage parents and families to work together with their schools during this very challenging moment. Um I think we have identified a good solution and test to stay and we’re working in partnership with our schools to make it as easy as possible to implement. But it will take some time. Uh That concludes my update. I’ll now turn it over to secretary smith. Yeah mm. Thank you. Secretary french. Good morning everyone. As of this morning over 29,000 people have gotten a fighter covid 19 booster or their additional dose of vaccine. In terms of any new boosters, both the FDA and the C. D. C. Must approve these on thursday this week. And friday of this week. The FDA advisory committee is holding meetings to discuss the moderna and johnson johnson boosters for those 18 years and older. They will also discuss the possibility that an individual could get a booster dose that is of a different type from that of their original vaccine the following week. The C. D. C. Panel will meet to discuss the F. D. A. S. Recommendation. The C. D. C. Has final approval on all recommendations. On october 26th, the FDA panel will meet again this time to discuss the Pfizer vaccine for Children ages 5 to 11 years old. Then on november 2nd and third A C. D. C. Panel will discuss approval of the FDA? S recommendation regarding Children’s ages 5 to 11. As these approvals come through, we have the capacity to roll out boosters while we already have the capacity to vaccinate Children 5-11. The pace of the rollout will be determined based on the availability of child specific vaccine. As was the case with the vaccine. When when we first was first authorised. All of this will be done through our network of vaccine clinics, pharmacies, schools and healthcare partners but with Children pediatricians will play an important role as well. And we are rolling out boosters to all eligible groups at the same time. There will be no segmenting of uh of the rollout. It’ll be all at the same time As I mentioned last week, Vermont is being as inclusive as possible. In our definition of who is eligible for a booster. So please take any opportunity that becomes available to you and your family to increase your protection against COVID-19 As the governor has mentioned many times. COVID-19 is a pandemic that will eventually become an endemic That we must all managed together. That means vermonters will have to take personal responsibility and take the preventive steps needed to stay healthy on a daily basis. We see data showing that up to 75% of Vermont reported positive cases are among unvaccinated individuals predominantly. These are people who can get vaccinated and have chosen not to be and subsequently caught Covid 19 To protect yourself, your family and your friends. I encourage you to get vaccinated this week. There are more than 70 state run vaccination clinics available. You can also visit most pharmacies and healthcare providers to get vaccinated whether you need the initial vaccine or you’re ready for your booster. Please make an appointment to get vaccinated, visit www dot health Vermont dot gov slash my vaccine. You can also call 8557227878. Lastly I’ll turn to testing for covid 19. As Commissioner Paycheck has has mentioned, we have a very robust testing Regimen in this state. Over the past seven days We’ve processed approximately 47,000 deaths. Testing is free and easy and you can find these testing locations and make appointments by going to health Vermont dot gov slash covid 19. Now I’ll turn it over to dr Levine for a health update. Thank you And as Commissioner Paycheck noted cases are falling nationally, but in Vermont we have not seen that happen in a consistent manner. Still the super contagious delta variant continues to find ways to spread throughout our communities, especially among people who are not vaccinated, including Children, 70-75% of all recent cases are among people who are not vaccinated. We continue to see cases across the whole spectrum of settings from schools and child cares to long term care facilities and workplaces. The majority of these cases are related to community transmission and are not associated with outbreaks. This spread is of course not what we want to see but we are still using many tools to protect from honors during this pandemic. Some are the same and some have changed as the pandemic has evolved. Testing for example continues to be key to finding cases, isolating them, informing them and their close contacts and stopping further spread. It’s still available and free throughout the state and I very much appreciate for monitors stepping up and utilizing this tool to the tune of 6-7,000 tests per day. But in schools, as you’ve heard, we focused on deploying newer rapper testing test to stay, to get results faster while also keeping kids in school. This is how we balance our need to keep communities safe with finding ways to safely live with the virus and I do expect that we will have a national strategy in the not too distant future. Were the use of at home rapid, accurate and free or inexpensive testing may become the norm and help guide us in our daily activities. As you know, we still hold vaccination clinics around the state with so many people already vaccinated numbers go up slowly. But we add to our vaccinated ranks on a regular basis. We’ve actually vaccinated over 40,000 vermonters since restrictions were lifted in June predating but also likely with the help of policies such as required vaccines for employees. We’re also working hard to ensure vermonters have the most protection possible against covid by getting them their booster shot. Many vermonters who receive fighter are eligible now and many more who received Moderna and johnson and johnson will be soon as federal regulators meet later this week. As you heard based on their guidance, I encourage from honors to get that dose of added protection as soon as they can. And the long awaited news regarding a mix and match approach may be forthcoming and we can expect that data from trials of this approach will be analyzed and debated. We’ll keep you up to date as that unfolds on the federal committee level. Now since I was not here last week to do so, I do want to address the C. D. C. S recent and urgent health advisory regarding vaccination and pregnancy In light of the 22 deaths from COVID-19 that occurred nationally in pregnant women in August the C. D. C. Health advisory strongly recommends covid 19 vaccination either before or during pregnancy because the benefits of vaccination for both pregnant people and their fetus or infant outweigh known or potential risks pregnant people with covid 19 are at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. That could include preterm birth, stillbirth and admission into the neonatal ICU of the newborn. Also infected with Covid as well as increased risk for the symptomatic mother of death or ICU admission. And finally we are preparing for the approval of vaccine for Children ages 5-11. This will be significant development in our efforts against the virus I’ve heard from parents and caregivers who are very eager to have their younger Children vaccinated. But I also know many will have questions. That’s okay I’m apparent and now a grandparent and I understand as we get more data will be able to provide fuller answers for you if you’re the parent of a young child, I hope you’ll reach out to your pediatrician for the answers you need. I’m confident they will be reaching out to you either individually or as part of a broader informational effort just like for adults vaccinated Children have less of a chance of getting sick with covid of worrying about rare but serious complications or having long term effects from Covid the vaccine can keep them safe, protect those around them and help them live their lives without the disease. We’re fortunate that Covid is now another vaccine preventable disease and that makes this a winnable battle. I’d like to turn for a moment to COVID-19 treatments. Vaccination is still the most important way. We greatly reduce the chances of getting severely ill. But people who get covid and are at higher risk should consider asking their health care provider from monoclonal antibody treatment. These have been shown to meaningfully reduce the incidents of hospitalization and death in those with COVID-19 who are at risk for severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies are recommended for covid patients with mild to moderate disease. So they are not hospitalized or on supplemental oxygen And our age 65 or older or with a medical condition such as obesity, diabetes, smoking heart and lung disease and other chronic medical conditions and of course those whose immune systems may not have amounted inadequate response to the vaccine. If you do get covid and have any of these risk factors. Tell your health care provider you are ill and asked to be evaluated from monoclonal antibody treatment. This is especially important if you develop shortness of breath treatment usually requires referral to an infusion center as the drug is given intravenously. However, now it may also be given as a needle under the skin. While there may be mild side effects, no serious adverse effects seem to occur with any frequency When used early enough. This treatment can reduce the number of people becoming hospitalized by 70%% and reduce how long symptoms last by 3-4 days. This is not meant for people who are already hospitalized as we have another, a number of other treatments that are more appropriate in that setting. Mm. And please remember vaccination is still your best approach to minimizing the chance of getting severely ill in the first place. Even when we have treatment options like monoclonal antibodies and antiviral medications. This is a lot of information today, but I’d like to remind anyone who has a positive covid test that they can also get a free pulse oximeter from the health department. This small device clips onto your finger and measures your pulse and oxygen levels. It can help you assess how ill you are or if your illness is getting worse. It’s especially important to identify this in the first five days of illness. When the antibody treatment can be most effective. Mhm. You may also have heard of a new antiviral pill that could treat mild to moderate illness in higher risk adults. Mall New pure of our the pharmaceutical company, Merck has just submitted an emergency use authorization request to the FDA. A clinical trial showed an approximate 50% reduction in the risk of hospitalization or death. And if this is true, it could be yet another important tool along with vaccination to managing this pandemic for the same group of adults that have been shown to benefit from monoclonal antibody treatment. But as a pill. Much more user friendly. Stay tuned for more news from FDA and CDC in the coming weeks. Mm. Finally it’s october which means it’s time to get your flu shot this month. Please. Covid has shown us the incredible benefits of having a readily available vaccine for what can be a serious illness. There’s no waiting period between your flu shot and a Covid vaccine or a Covid booster. It’s even safe to get them at the same time one in each arm if you want to. It’s important to stay as healthy as possible with both Covid and the flu potentially circulating this fall and winter so we can stay in school, keep working and protect one another. Now the governor will make his comments. Mhm. Thank you Dr Levin and good afternoon. Apologies for the time change. Today. I’ll be traveling to Washington, D. C. This afternoon with general night for meetings with our federal and international partners and we’ll have more information on that. Coming later this week. I’ll be brief because we want to leave time for you to ask as many questions as possible before I have to go. I just got off our call with the White House and other governors and here’s what we heard Dr walensky, the CDC director emphasized that while the national picture is looking better, they are not letting up on the importance of getting people vaccinated. That includes moving forward on the F. D. A. Approval of boosters for Moderna and J. And J. As well as the emergency use authorization For Kids 5- 11. They still expect these to be taken up in the next few weeks and like us, the federal government is already preparing for distribution of the vaccine once it is approved. Um Dr walensky is Dr Levin has just mentioned uh Dr walensky has urged people to get their flu shots because they expect this to be a more severe flu season after a mild one last year. People don’t have the anti bodies necessary to award this off and she reiterated as well, it’s safe to have a flu shot and a booster at the same time. And finally Governor Insley from Washington asked about allowing Canadians to travel into the U. S. Um simply answer from the White house is we’re working on. So time will tell. But they did mention that I had asked about this weeks ago. Next I wanted to take a moment to express my appreciation for the work of parents, staff and teachers through the first six weeks of the school year. And I know it hasn’t been easy after what kids went through last year. We know how important it is for them to be in school, especially with the isolation and the loss of learning they experienced. So the fact that 80,000 kids are back five days a week is huge but it wouldn’t be possible without the school staff, nurses and covid coordinators working long hours. Their jobs are tough and their commitment to students and their communities is unmatched. Unfortunately, we’ve heard where cooperation from some parents have been less than ideal and I want to remind everyone that they’re just doing their jobs under very difficult circumstances and conditions. So while I know this is tough on parents and students, please remember this is not easy for anyone. So let’s treat each other with respect and civility. It’s our hope test this. They will lead to more kids being able to stay in school and less disruption for families instead of quarantines, students who are identified as close contacts will be able to go to school as long as they test negative each morning as we’ve set, we’ve seen this work in massachusetts and we believe it will be successful here as well. The Agency of Education will continue to work with districts on its implementation in the coming weeks. And with that we’ll open it up to questions
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Vermont’s COVID-19 outlook uncertain, state leaders say
Updated: 6:16 PM EDT Oct 12, 2021
A new release of pandemic modeling offers uncertainty for the future of COVID-19 transmission across Vermont. During a press briefing Tuesday morning, health officials noted cases were up 26% during the past week. It makes Vermont the only New England state to report rising cases and comes amid an ongoing wave of new infections that rivaled its most severe since the pandemic began. Finance Commissioner Mike Pieciak, who also acts as the state’s point person for pandemic modeling, presented a chart offering a variety of vastly different outlooks for the state in the next week. “We’re a little uncertain of the direction we’re heading in, unfortunately,” Pieciak said when presenting the data. He added that cases have been “very high” in the state’s Northeast Kingdom when compared on a per capita basis across the state. Caledonia, Essex and Orleans counties — which comprise the region — have reported a combined 538 cases during the past two weeks. Chittenden County, which has more than double the population of the entire Northeast Kingdom, reported 505 new COVID-19 cases during the same period. Health Commissioner Mark Levine said of all new infections reported in the last week, roughly 70% were among people who are not fully vaccinated against COVID-19. That data includes schools and child care centers with children, who make up a large portion of recent case increases and are not yet eligible to begin the inoculation process.State leadership has effectively ruled out tourism as a driving force behind the increased transmission. According to Gov. Phil Scott, less than 10% of total cases reported were among out-of-state residents. The note comes as Vermont sees a wave of “leaf-peeping” tourists from across the country visiting to enjoy autumnal scenery in the state. Infections are being driven in large part, by state estimates, through high community transmission. No major outbreaks have been identified as a hotbed for COVID-19 spread in recent weeks. “The cases seem to be focused on gatherings — small, mid-size gatherings,” Scott said Tuesday. “Whether it be wedding receptions, gatherings at homes and parties and so forth, not larger scale.”While Scott expressed concern with certain outdoor gatherings, his main message was to those opting to attend indoor gatherings or businesses without a facial covering. “Don’t put yourself in those positions,” he said. “Wear a mask when you’re around people you don’t know. Especially when you’re inside.”All Vermont counties are listed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as having “high” or “substantial” transmission of COVID-19. The designations do not bring any formal guidelines or restrictions into effect for residents, though federal health officials recommend any counties in those categories transmission implement indoor mask mandates.The transmission level is defined by the agency as any place with more than 100 cases per 100,000 people in the past week. Scott has repeatedly rejected calls from state legislators to implement additional public health guidance at a state level, concerned about the potential reenactment of a state of emergency that might be necessary to do so. The governor is instead hopeful transmission will begin to ebb in three or four weeks, citing decreases seen over a similar time period in southern states. “We’re disappointed, we wish we had all the answers, but we have to keep doing what we think is right,” Scott said.
A new release of pandemic modeling offers uncertainty for the future of COVID-19 transmission across Vermont.
During a press briefing Tuesday morning, health officials noted cases were up 26% during the past week. It makes Vermont the only New England state to report rising cases and comes amid an ongoing wave of new infections that rivaled its most severe since the pandemic began.
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Finance Commissioner Mike Pieciak, who also acts as the state’s point person for pandemic modeling, presented a chart offering a variety of vastly different outlooks for the state in the next week.
“We’re a little uncertain of the direction we’re heading in, unfortunately,” Pieciak said when presenting the data.
He added that cases have been “very high” in the state’s Northeast Kingdom when compared on a per capita basis across the state. Caledonia, Essex and Orleans counties — which comprise the region — have reported a combined 538 cases during the past two weeks.
Chittenden County, which has more than double the population of the entire Northeast Kingdom, reported 505 new COVID-19 cases during the same period.
Health Commissioner Mark Levine said of all new infections reported in the last week, roughly 70% were among people who are not fully vaccinated against COVID-19. That data includes schools and child care centers with children, who make up a large portion of recent case increases and are not yet eligible to begin the inoculation process.
State leadership has effectively ruled out tourism as a driving force behind the increased transmission. According to Gov. Phil Scott, less than 10% of total cases reported were among out-of-state residents.
The note comes as Vermont sees a wave of “leaf-peeping” tourists from across the country visiting to enjoy autumnal scenery in the state.
Infections are being driven in large part, by state estimates, through high community transmission. No major outbreaks have been identified as a hotbed for COVID-19 spread in recent weeks.
“The cases seem to be focused on gatherings — small, mid-size gatherings,” Scott said Tuesday. “Whether it be wedding receptions, gatherings at homes and parties and so forth, not larger scale.”
While Scott expressed concern with certain outdoor gatherings, his main message was to those opting to attend indoor gatherings or businesses without a facial covering.
“Don’t put yourself in those positions,” he said. “Wear a mask when you’re around people you don’t know. Especially when you’re inside.”
All Vermont counties are listed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as having “high” or “substantial” transmission of COVID-19. The designations do not bring any formal guidelines or restrictions into effect for residents, though federal health officials recommend any counties in those categories transmission implement indoor mask mandates.
The transmission level is defined by the agency as any place with more than 100 cases per 100,000 people in the past week.
Scott has repeatedly rejected calls from state legislators to implement additional public health guidance at a state level, concerned about the potential reenactment of a state of emergency that might be necessary to do so.
The governor is instead hopeful transmission will begin to ebb in three or four weeks, citing decreases seen over a similar time period in southern states.
“We’re disappointed, we wish we had all the answers, but we have to keep doing what we think is right,” Scott said.
