The political landscape is shifting ahead of the 2024 elections, with the redrawing of congressional maps in several states, including North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia. This redistricting could have a significant impact on the balance of power in Congress and determine which party takes control next year.”There’s a three-seat majority for the House of Representatives for Republicans, which means even one state flipping their map can upset the balance of power for an entire chamber of Congress,” said Casey Burgat, Director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University.Since 2020, dozens of lawsuits alleging racial and partisan bias in proposed maps have challenged legislative and congressional districts in more than a dozen states.”Efforts to gerrymander on partisan bases intersect with efforts to gerrymander on racial bases because people use race as a proxy for politics,” said Daniel Weiner, of the Brennan Center for Justice.In Alabama and Georgia, new maps were drawn after federal judges ruled that the states concentrated Black voters in too few districts.”It seems like Democrats are going to pick up at least one more seat in Alabama,” Burgat noted.Meanwhile, in North Carolina, the state’s Republican supermajority legislature redrew the previously evenly split map, potentially leading to a four-seat pickup.”North Carolina could be the entire difference maker,” Burgat added.However, it remains uncertain which party will gain the most from the last-minute redraws, as Louisiana and New York are among the states set to issue new maps before Election Day.”This is what happens when you have an incredibly polarized political environment, and really small majorities where each and every seat matters,” Burgat said.In addition to congressional redistricting, several states also face the prospect of redrawing their legislative maps, which can impact politics on a state and local level.The most impactful undecided redistricting challenge currently is out of South Carolina. The case is before the Supreme Court, which is expected to rule this summer. A lower court ruled that South Carolina lawmakers racially gerrymandered Black neighborhoods in an effort to dilute their voting power, similar to the cases in Georgia and Alabama.
The political landscape is shifting ahead of the 2024 elections, with the redrawing of congressional maps in several states, including North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia. This redistricting could have a significant impact on the balance of power in Congress and determine which party takes control next year.
“There’s a three-seat majority for the House of Representatives for Republicans, which means even one state flipping their map can upset the balance of power for an entire chamber of Congress,” said Casey Burgat, Director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University.
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Since 2020, dozens of lawsuits alleging racial and partisan bias in proposed maps have challenged legislative and congressional districts in more than a dozen states.
“Efforts to gerrymander on partisan bases intersect with efforts to gerrymander on racial bases because people use race as a proxy for politics,” said Daniel Weiner, of the Brennan Center for Justice.
In Alabama and Georgia, new maps were drawn after federal judges ruled that the states concentrated Black voters in too few districts.
“It seems like Democrats are going to pick up at least one more seat in Alabama,” Burgat noted.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, the state’s Republican supermajority legislature redrew the previously evenly split map, potentially leading to a four-seat pickup.
“North Carolina could be the entire difference maker,” Burgat added.
However, it remains uncertain which party will gain the most from the last-minute redraws, as Louisiana and New York are among the states set to issue new maps before Election Day.
“This is what happens when you have an incredibly polarized political environment, and really small majorities where each and every seat matters,” Burgat said.
In addition to congressional redistricting, several states also face the prospect of redrawing their legislative maps, which can impact politics on a state and local level.
The most impactful undecided redistricting challenge currently is out of South Carolina. The case is before the Supreme Court, which is expected to rule this summer. A lower court ruled that South Carolina lawmakers racially gerrymandered Black neighborhoods in an effort to dilute their voting power, similar to the cases in Georgia and Alabama.
